When global streamer IShowSpeed reacted with surprise to learning that you cannot freely buy diamonds in Botswana, the moment went viral. Behind the humor was an important economic truth: diamonds in Botswana are not consumer goods. They are a tightly controlled national asset, and that system is now under measurable strain.
How important are diamonds to Botswana’s economy?
For decades, diamonds have been the backbone of Botswana’s economic model. At their peak, diamonds contributed approximately thirty-five to forty percent of GDP, generated around eighty percent of export earnings, and provided the bulk of government revenue used to fund public services such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
That contribution has fallen meaningfully in recent years. By 2023 to 2024 estimates, diamonds contributed closer to 25 to 30 percent of GDP. This reflects a structural decline rather than a short-term fluctuation.
1.Diamond Sector Contribution to GDP and the Role of Lab-Grown Diamonds
Over five years, diamonds have declined by approximately 10 to 13 percentage points as a share of GDP. Industry estimates suggest that lab-grown diamonds account for roughly one-third to one-half of this decline, with the remainder driven by macroeconomic weakness, pricing disputes, and rising production costs.
Why lab-grown diamonds matter structurally
Lab-grown diamonds now represent approximately 45 to 50 percent of engagement ring sales by volume in the United States, Botswana’s most important downstream consumer market. These diamonds typically sell at discounts of 60 to 80 percent compared to natural stones.
Even when total unit sales remain stable, this shift compresses overall market value. For Botswana, the result is lower realized prices per carat and repeated production cuts to avoid oversupply. In some recent sales cycles, rough diamond revenues declined by nearly 50 percent year-on-year during periods of severe demand weakness.
Why diamonds are still tightly controlled
Botswana’s diamond industry operates through Debswana, a joint venture between the government and De Beers. Diamonds are sold through licensed auctions and long-term contracts, not open retail markets. This structure protects pricing power, limits smuggling, and preserves fiscal stability.
Allowing open access, even for locals, would undermine export agreements and weaken Botswana’s negotiating position in global markets. This explains why IShowSpeed’s assumption, while intuitive, does not align with how the system is designed to function.
The bigger picture
IShowSpeed’s viral moment unintentionally exposed a deeper reality. Botswana’s diamond system was built to serve national stability and global markets, not individual consumers. That system delivered decades of growth and one of Africa’s most stable economies.
Today, lab-grown alternatives, shifting consumer preferences, and global demand weakness are testing its limits. Diamonds remain strategically important, but they are no longer sufficient on their own. Botswana’s long-term economic resilience will depend on how quickly it can reduce diamond dependence without destabilizing public finances or social outcomes.
References
- World Bank – Botswana Macroeconomic Indicators and Sectoral GDP Data
- Botswana Statistics Office – National Accounts and Mining Sector Contribution Reports
- De Beers Group – Annual Reports, Sales Agreements, and Diamond Market Insights
- Bain & Company – Global Diamond Industry Reports (2023–2024)
- U.S. Jewelry Market & Industry Bodies – Data and Analysis from GIA and Rapaport
- Associated Press – Botswana–De Beers Agreement and Diamond Revenue Structure
https://www.apnews.com/article/ea6abf48813eac6accbcb319163084f5 - Reuters – Debswana Production Cuts Amid Weak Global Diamond Demand
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/botswanas-debswana-curbs-diamond-production-weak-demand-persists-2025-06-06/ - International Monetary Fund (IMF) – Botswana Country Report and Diamond Export Impact
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1bwaea2024006-print-pdf.ashx - Rapaport – Failed Botswana Rough Diamond Tender and Market Weakness
https://www.rapaport.com/news/1m-cts-of-rough-diamonds-fail-to-sell-at-closed-botswana-tender-reports/ - Diamond World – Botswana’s Domestic Diamond Processing Strategy
https://www.diamondworld.net/news/botswana-moves-to-process-all-diamonds-domestically-in-major-economic-shift/ - Southern African Times – Declining Natural Diamond Demand and Botswana’s Economic Crossroads
https://www.southernafricantimes.com/botswana-at-a-crossroads-as-natural-diamond-demand-declines/
